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Electromobility - current status and outlook
Electromobility is an important pillar for the sustainable and environmentally friendly mobility of the future. This is because it offers many advantages for the environment, the economy and society. It reduces greenhouse gas emissions, air pollution and noise pollution, improves energy efficiency and energy security, creates new jobs and promotes innovation.
However, it is also an important factor for the digital transformation of the transport sector, as it enables the networking, automation and personalisation of various mobility services.
How has the situation developed in recent years and what challenges and opportunities still lie ahead for e-mobility? In this article, we would like to provide an overview of the relevant trends, markets and players and venture an outlook for the coming years.
Development to date and medium-term future prospects for electromobility
Global demand for electric vehicles has seen a significant increase in recent years. The reasons for this include the following:
- A key impetus for the rapid growth of the electric car market has been the government incentives and support programmes introduced by various countries and regions around the world. This is because they recognised the need to shape the transition from conventional combustion engines to environmentally friendly electric vehicles and implemented measures such as tax breaks, subsidies and concessions for the purchase of electric cars.
- Another reason for the boom in electromobility is the further development of battery technology. Recent breakthroughs have led to improvements in battery capacity, performance and durability. The introduction of more powerful batteries at affordable prices has removed one of the main barriers to the adoption of electric vehicles and increased consumer confidence in the new technology. With longer ranges and shorter charging times, electric vehicles are now also suitable for everyday use.
- The economies of scale in the production of electric vehicles have also led to falling manufacturing costs, which has a direct impact on the end price for consumers. Electric cars used to be considered expensive niche products. They are now increasingly able to compete with conventional combustion engines in terms of purchase price.
Due to these factors, the global market for electric vehicles recorded a significant increase. In 2022, the volume of the electric car market was around 384 billion US dollars. By 2023, this figure had already increased to 500 billion US dollars. That is a remarkable growth rate of around 30 per cent. But this is just the beginning. Forecasts predict that this trend will continue and that the market will amount to a gigantic 1.5 trillion US dollars by 2030, which corresponds to an annual growth rate of 17.8 per cent.
It is even expected that the share of electric vehicles in the global market will rise to over 80 per cent by 2030. This would not only permanently change the automotive industry, but would also have a huge impact on the entire economy, the environment and society.
As electric vehicles become more widespread, the challenges and opportunities for the automotive industry are also increasing. Manufacturers must continue to invest in research and development in order to improve the technology, increase the range and expand the charging infrastructure. At the same time, new business areas are opening up for companies specialising in the production of batteries, charging stations and other related technologies.
Which markets and companies are currently ahead?
China is currently the largest sales market for electric vehicles and the leader in the electromobility industry. Chinese OEMs such as BYD, NIO and CATL also currently occupy the top spot in terms of the production of electric vehicles and batteries with a market share of around 40 per cent, followed by Europe and then the USA.
Europe has recently developed into an emerging market that is experiencing continuous growth. Companies such as Volkswagen, BMW and Renault are playing an important role in promoting electric mobility in Europe. In the USA, Tesla dominated the electric vehicle market in 2020 with a market share of over 80 per cent.
The global boom in electromobility has also increased the demand for batteries. CATL, a Chinese company, is a leading battery manufacturer that supplies the Chinese market and international car manufacturers. Europe and the USA are working on expanding their own battery production to ensure a sustainable supply chain for electric vehicles.
The competitive situation of German OEMs
German car manufacturers have long focussed on the development and production of combustion engines, as they saw their strengths in this technology. However, this focus meant that they sometimes took an overly cautious approach to electromobility. In particular, concerns about range, charging infrastructure and customer acceptance have long stood in the way of the widespread introduction of electric vehicles.
However, market conditions and consumer attitudes have changed dramatically in recent years, forcing German car manufacturers to adapt their strategies. Growing awareness of environmental issues and the increasing importance of sustainability have led to increased interest in electromobility. At the same time, government incentives and legal requirements in many countries have boosted the market for e-vehicles, giving manufacturers an additional incentive to invest in the development of e-cars.
According to a study by the Center of Automotive Management (CAM), German OEMs sold around 1.2 million electric vehicles worldwide in 2020, which corresponds to a respectable 17 per cent share of the overall market. In Europe in particular, one of the key markets for electromobility, German manufacturers were able to strengthen their position and achieve a market share of 40 per cent. These figures make it clear that German car manufacturers are on the way to gaining a foothold in a highly competitive market. Popular models that have contributed to the success of German manufacturers in the electric vehicle market are the Volkswagen ID.3, the Audi e-tron and the BMW i3.
In short, German car manufacturers have now recognised that electromobility will shape the future of the automotive industry. They are therefore increasingly focussing on the development and production of electric cars in order to remain competitive and meet the growing needs of consumers for environmentally friendly and sustainable mobility options. With their increasing investments and attractive electric car offerings, German manufacturers are increasingly well positioned to play a significant role in an increasingly electrified world.
What is the status of the charging infrastructure in Germany?
The availability and quality of the charging infrastructure are undoubtedly decisive factors for the acceptance and spread of electromobility on a global level. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), there were around 7.3 million charging points for electric vehicles worldwide in 2020. This impressive figure is made up of 6.5 million private charging stations and 0.8 million public charging stations. Continuous improvement and expansion of the charging situation is crucial to convince potential owners of electric vehicles of the benefits of electromobility and to dispel concerns about range and charging times.
In Germany, too, there has been significant progress in the development of the charging infrastructure. As of January 2023, a total of 82,351 public charging stations and 33,714 private charging stations were available in the country. This illustrates the growing commitment of the German government and industry to promote electromobility in the country and provide the necessary infrastructure. The Charging Infrastructure Masterplan II initiated by the German government serves as a strategic roadmap for the coming years and sets out clear goals and measures.
Ambitious plans for the German charging infrastructure by 2030
An important goal of the masterplan is to establish one million public charging points in Germany by 2030. This ambitious plan aims to increase the range of electric vehicles and further improve their suitability for everyday use. The masterplan comprises a total of 68 measures aimed at strengthening the charging situation in various areas. These include, for example, the integration of charging infrastructure and the electricity system to enable the efficient and sustainable use of electric mobility. Improvements through digitalisation also play an important role in making charging processes simpler, faster and more user-friendly.
In addition, the masterplan also aims to promote the introduction of charging stations for electric lorries, as the electrification of freight transport plays a crucial role in the fight against climate change. Electric lorries have the potential to significantly reduce CO2 emissions and improve air quality in cities. Investments in charging points for electric lorries are therefore an important part of the project.
Investments totalling 6.3 billion euros are planned up to 2026 to drive forward the expansion of charging stations in Germany. This expenditure is urgently needed to promote e-mobility in the long term. After all, progress in the charging infrastructure is an important prerequisite for making e-vehicles even more attractive to consumers and further improving the overall acceptance of e-cars. Only a well-developed network can create trust and allay concerns about range problems.
With the ambitious Charging Infrastructure Masterplan II, Germany is therefore sending a strong signal for the future of electromobility in the country and making a significant contribution to the global transition to a clean and emission-free transport solution.
What can we deduce for the future from developments to date?
Developments and forecasts to date show that electromobility is an extremely dynamic sector that is constantly generating new innovations and opportunities. The global market will grow and the demand for e-cars will increase. However, a number of challenges still need to be overcome before the full potential of e-mobility can be realised.
This includes the availability and reliability of the charging infrastructure, the integration of renewable energies into the electricity grid and securing the supply of raw materials for battery production. The security of user data and the adaptation of the legal and regulatory framework must also be ensured.
German OEMs should therefore monitor the market closely and adapt their own strategies accordingly. In doing so, they can learn from the experiences of other markets and companies and at the same time play to their own strengths. Electromobility offers the opportunity not only to make the transport sector more sustainable, but also to make the German economy fit for the future.